The rise in the bitcoin rate over $10,000 does not inspire confidence
Bitcoin (BTC) is showing a smooth and uneven recovery from the low of $9,825 reached on September 5.
The current rise looks unconvincing and gives reason to predict another wave of decline with testing of five-day lows.
Sluggish Bitcoin rally
Bitcoin is recovering from its September 5 low of $9,825. The current rally was preceded by impressive bullish divergence signals from the RSI on short-term charts (up to 6 hours).
At the time of writing, the major cryptocurrency is trading just below $10,300, with a symbolic bullish bias on the daily chart.
MACD, RSI and Stochastic RSI give bearish divergence signals, with the latter indicator forming a bearish crossover. Apparently, the current growth attempts will not continue and will soon be replaced by the resumption of the bearish trend.
The hourly chart shows a similar technical picture, with the above indicators signaling bearish divergence even more clearly, while the RSI and MACD are significantly declining.
If quotes break through the current short-term upward support line, this behavior will confirm the negative outlook for BTC.
If we consider the dynamics of Bitcoin in the framework of wave analysis, we can assume that the digital currency began to form an impulsive bearish structure of five waves on September 2 and is now in the fourth wave stage (marked in orange on the chart).
Based on the time spent on the formation of wave 4 in comparison with the third wave, a picture is formed in which the price is corrected in the form of a complex W-X-Y structure (red on the chart).
Based on the length of wave X, this wave will end around $10,490.
A closer analysis of the Y wave can reveal a similar target, which in turn signals the imminent formation of a top. The loss of the upward support line mentioned above will confirm the start of the bearish BTC trend.
So, bitcoin should get to the $10,500 area, from where it will most likely retrace towards the $ 9,500 level.