Bar analysis
Last week’s bar closed for purchases. At the same time, the spread and volume is quite small, which indicates a local weakening of the bulls movement.
Progress within the wave has noticeably weakened, which speaks in favor of a correction with potential targets at $10,400. I assume that the week will close in sales.
Price Action and VSA
It is worth separating the short term from the medium term. If we talk about the short–term outlook, then yesterday’s impulse looks unnatural due to the anomalous volume that has appeared, which may be an impetus for collecting stop orders. Perhaps we are dealing with the UT liquidity withdrawal pattern. I doubt that on such dynamics, Bitcoin will be able to firmly gain a foothold above $12,300.
In the coming days, there is a risk of seeing a drain.
In the medium term, it becomes obvious that large capital in the current sideways ($12,128– $10,500) is gaining a long position, so within two weeks we can see a true exit above $12,000. According to the analysis of bars on the daily time-frame, the first cryptocurrency looks strong in the long, but it’s hard to believe in updating local highs without a correction.
Analysis of horizontal volumes
If we turn to the daily chart, then at first glance everything looks good – out of balance and correction with continued growth. However, the delta signals seller dominance. Even on the breakout with the update of the local maximum, it was possible to achieve an advantage of only 1.2%, which is extremely weak for any JOC.
On smaller time-frames, you can see a huge surge of liquidity in a counter-trend, which is a fixing pattern and the end of growth at the moment.
The huge delta pillar and the loss of control by the buyer indicates the manipulative nature of the entire movement.
Delta and high frequency activity analysis
Locally, you can see even more clues that line up in a short picture. One of them is the lack of protection of the buying mass in the $12 240– $12 300 zone, as well as the serious activity of sellers.
The cherry on top is the abnormal activity of HFT algorithms, which in 90% of cases is a harbinger of a reversal. Given the volatility they’ve created, you can expect a major move down, all the way down to $11,000.
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